Wednesday, April 14, 2010

My Plan to get Randy Ruiz into the lineup

Eight games into the season, Randy Ruiz has just a single at bat. In a way that's quite shocking given that Ruiz actually led the Blue Jays in 2009 in terms of on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Other than the departed Scott Rolen, he also led the club in terms of batting average. I will concede, he accomplished this feat with limited playing time (115 ABs), but that's still a decent sample size. On the other hand, with Cito Gaston as the manager, someone who does not use a lot of pinch hitters, it's not that surprising that he only has 1 at bat thus far.

However, regardless of Cito's managerial philosophy when it comes to pinch hitting, I think I have a feasible solution to get Randy Ruiz some playing time. Having said that, there are certain caveats, or conditions that have to be met. Travis Snider has to be an everyday player, and has to face lefties. The youngster is going to be a key piece to this franchise in the near future, and the club has to show him that they have confidence in him, and he needs to develop his own confidence against lefties, and he needs as much playing time as possible to continue to improve defensively. If he stubs his toe this year - so be it. This the year to make mistakes. Lyle Overbay is going to be an everyday player as well. Plugging Ruiz in at 1st base is too much of a defensive liability. And it goes without saying, but Randy Ruiz cannot bump Adam Lind out of the lineup.

So, the only possible solution is to: put Bautista at 3rd base against left-handed pitching; sit Edwin Encarnacion; move Snider to right field; and give Adam Lind some time in left field. I'm not saying that the Jays should do this because I'm a big Bautista fan (which I am) or because of his sudden outburst of home runs in August/September of 2009, and during spring training. Nor am I saying this because I'm not Edwin Encarnacion fan (which I'm not) or really even because of his sub-standard defense. I'm basing this decision solely on each players' respective career numbers against left-handed pitching. There's no question that over their entire careers, Encarnacion is a superior hitter, but against left-handed pitching it is quite a different story.

Against left-handed pitching, Encarnacion has hit .270/.375/.464 and has an OPS of .839. Bautista has hit .265/.359/.478 against left-handed pitching, and has an OPS of .838. OPS is On-Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage. On-base percentage is more effective than measuring simple batting average because it takes into account walks and hit-by-pitches in addition to base hits. Slugging Percentage (total bases/at-bats) not only measures how often a player gets a base hit (batting average), but what kind of hits they are getting (singles, doubles, triples or home runs). Combining the two metrics gives a great measure of overall offensive production. A measly 1 point separates the two players when it comes to this stat. So in my books, against left-handed pitching, they're equal. One could argue that Bautista actually has a bit of an upside because of his new-found power from August/September 2009 and during Spring Training, but that argument does not need to be made in order to make this move convincing. The other reason to do this is because when you have Bautista at 3rd as opposed to Encarnacion, you're definitely giving your defense a boost.

So Bautista replaces Encarnacion against left-handed pitching, which is an offensive-neutral change, but an improvement defensively. And Randy Ruiz has the all the potential in the world to be a more productive hitter than Jose Bautista. The only reason not to make this move is if the Jays actually feel like Encarnacion could be their 3rd baseman of the future, or even in 2011. Encarnacion's contract with the Jays ends after the 2010 season.

On a completely separate note, Jason Frasor is no longer the Blue Jays closer. Kevin Greg, the newly-appointed closer, through 4 1/3 innings this season has allowed only 1 hit, has struck out 6, and hasn't allowed a single walk. He has faced the minimum 13 hitters. This move gets the thumbs up from me.

No comments:

Post a Comment