Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Blue Jays hand Halladay a loss...? (That just doesn't sound right)

Former Blue Jay, now Philadelphia Philly, Roy Hallady had an uncharacteristically short outing today against his former club going just 3 innings, while surrendering 5 hits and 4 earned runs - all in the first inning. The Blue Jays jumped all over their former ace early with 3 extra-base hits in a row to start off the game. Halladay looked great in his second inning of work striking out the side in order, but he struggled with his command in the first inning. He threw a lot more curveballs than Blue Jay fans were used to see last year. The curveball visibly fooled right handed batters like Jose Bautista, Vernon Wells and Edwin Encarnacion who all turned away from the pitch thinking it was coming well inside to them.

The Blue Jays starting pitcher, Brett Cecil looked good in what should be his last outing of the spring. Cecil went 6 innings giving up no walks, and just 2 earned runs (2 solo home runs). A solid performance from Cecil today should be enough to win him a spot in the Jays' rotation after it was announced today that the bruised middle finger that Marc Rzepczynski sustained in Tuesday's game against the Yankees is actually a broken or fractured middle finger which will keep him out of the lineup for 4-6 weeks. Once again, this changes the look of the Jays pitching staff. As opposed to speculating who is going to be in the rotation and who is going to be in the bullpen (the wildcards of Tallet & Eveland make that argument too complicated) I think one can easily say that the following 11 pitchers are locks to break camp with the club in some form:

-Shaun Marcum
-Ricky Romero
-Brandon Morrow
-Brett Cecil
-Brian Tallet
-Dana Eveland
-Jason Frasor
-Kevin Gregg
-Scott Downs
-Casey Janssen
-Shawn Camp

The final spot could go to:
-Merkin Valdez
-Jeremy Accardo
-Josh Roenicke

One would think Valdez has the option because he is out of options and would need to be placed on waivers if they Jays wanted to send him down to Las Vegas, and he has quite arguably pitched better than Accardo and Roenicke.


Today Raul Chavez was reassigned to Triple-A Las Vegas to serve as the backup to the Jays' top catching prospect - J.P. Arencibia, which means that Jose Molina will serve as the Blue Jays backup catcher.


Reasonable and rational comments are always welcome.

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

David Wright = Rick Moranis in Spaceballs



2009 seemed to be the season of hitters getting plunked in the head by pitchers. David Wright, Francisco Cervelli, Scott Rolen and Marco Scutaro all faced similar scary incidents, but none was worse than Wright's though. Along with Wright, Cervelli is now wearing an oversized helmet that can reportedly withstand those 94mph fastballs like the one from Matt Cain of the San Francisco Giants that beaned Wright in the head in August of last year.

But is it just me, or do these helmets remind you of Rick Moranis in Spaceballs?!

Randy Ruiz the Pinch Runner...

That's not something you're too likely to see the big boy from the Bronx doing during the regular season even though he has trimmed about 20 lbs. off his frame over the offseason.

The bigger, or biggest story of the game was arguably how Marc Rzepczysnki struggled to hit his spots giving up 5 earned runs, 8 hits and 2 walks to the Yankees over 4 and 2/3rd of an inning. Rzepczynski's only real saving grace was his curveball at times, which helped him strike out the last two hitters in the 4th inning - catcher Francisco Cervelli, and minor league speedster Greg Golson. The young pitcher must have felt that his curveball was working so well for him that he decided to open up the 5th inning against Yankee shortstop Derek Jeter with that pitch, only to hang it a little bit up in the zone. Jeter made Zep pay by tripling to center field. That was the beginning of the end for Zep who left later on that inning after reaching out for a ground ball hit up the middle by Ramiro Pena which hit him on his throwing hand. The extent of the injury to Rzepczynski was not made known during or after the game, but one could tell that he was in obvious pain.

Zep's lack-lustre outing tonight coupled with a potential injury makes things even more interesting for the Blue Jays' starting rotation. Brett Cecil, who many in the media had already pegged to start the season in Triple-A Las Vegas, starts on Wednesday for the Blue Jays against the Phillies and could book himself a ticket for a flight out to Texas next week as opposed to Sin City if he delivers a solid outing against Roy Halladay's new club. Rzepczynski's shaking outing also keeps things open for Dana Eveland to join the Jays' rotation as opposed to the bullpen.

The Jays struggled at the plate especially during Sergio Mitre's first three innings where he was perfect and had his changeup working particularly well for himself. Mitre started the game even though Phil Hughes has already been named the Yankees fifth starter. The only hits for the Jays came from Aaron Hill who homered in the 4th inning to give the Jays a brief 1-run lead; Jose Bautista and Lyle Overbay who both singled; and Adam Lind who doubled.

In other Blue Jays news, a few more cuts were made today with David Purcey, Jesse Carlson and Jeremy Reed being sent to Triple-A Las Vegas. Purcey doesn't come as much of a surprise, but Carlson and Reed were a little less expected. As I mentioned yesterday, Gaston seemed very partial to Carlson last year and was quoted as saying about Carlson, "He's one of the guys I really, really like as a person." Carlson who has dealt with a knee injury this spring will get some work in Vegas and we will surely see him up with the big club later this season. Jeremy Reed is being sent to Las Vegas after hitting .431/.460/.490 in the spring over 51 ABs (more than any other Blue Jay hitter). Although Reed couldn't have done much more during the spring, Blue Jays' GM Alex Anthopolous felt that Mike McCoy did that much more than Reed, and McCoy's versatility in the field was surely one factor that made the decision easier for management.

If you have MLB.TV, tune in tomorrow at 1:05pm EST because the Jays take on the Phillies in Clearwater with Roy Halladay taking the mound for the Phils!

Monday, March 29, 2010

Say Hello to your 2010 Blue Jays

With the 2010 Regular Season starting in 1 week, it seems like an appropriate time to comment on what the opening day 25-man roster should look like.

So here we go...

ROTATION
Marcum
Romero
Rzepczynski
Morrow
Tallet

BULLPEN
Frasor (Closer)
Downs
Gregg
Camp
Janssen
Eveland
Carlson/Valdez

Frasor was recently named the closer by Cito, and Downs and Gregg were the other two locks from the beginning of the spring. Camp has been solid, and Janssen seems to be getting back to his 2007 form. Dana Eveland has been given more of a chance than any other pitcher to show his stuff this spring with 22 innings pitched so far - 5 innings more than both Tallet and Rzepczynski. Eveland has impressed during his audition especially today when he gave up no runs and allowed just 4 hits and one walk over 6 innings while striking out 8! Cito has not ruled out the idea of starting both young pitchers, Cecil and Rzepczynski, in Las Vegas. If that were the case, that would definitely leave room in the rotation for Eveland. Brian Tallet could also move back to his familiar spot in the bullpen as well. Either way, Eveland is making it a very easy decision for management to bring him north for the beginning of the season. As he is out of options, if the Jays wanted to send him down to the minors, he would be exposed to other teams on waivers. In the past Cito has been very partial to Carlson giving him more appearances in 2009 than any other Blue Jays pitcher. So I can only imagine that he will get the call instead of Valdez even though he’s out of options.


BATTING ORDER
Bautista RF
Hill 2B
Lind LF
Wells CF
Overbay 1B
Ruiz DH
Encarnacion 3B
Gonazalez SS
Buck C

BENCH
Snider
McDonald
Molina/Chavez
McCoy/Reed

Neither Jose Molina nor Raul Chavez have impressed offensively. Expect Molina to start the year with the big club until either he gives the Jays a reason he doesn't deserve to be there and/or Chavez gives them a reason that he should be there. Both Mike McCoy and Jeremy Reed have played well enough during the spring to earn themselves a spot on the 25-man roster. Surely the one who doesn’t come north with the team at the beginning of the season will get a shot later on this year.
Ruiz really deserves a shot to be the everyday DH for the club this season. If there's one thing he knows how to do - it's hitting. Especially given the fact that the Jays aren't exactly competing for a playoff spot this year, it's worth giving Ruiz a good hard look to see if this guy can put up some sustained, above-average numbers at the plate in the majors.


Reasonable and rational comments are always welcome.

Friday, March 12, 2010

Marcum continues to solidify himself as the Ace

Hi All,
Today was unfortunately the first Blue Jays game of the spring that was not broadcast in any form. If you have mlb.tv, you have been able to listen to all Blue Jays games up until this point, and you were actually able to watch last Saturday's game against the Yankees. I would highly recommend for the hardcore baseball fan.


But from the reports, today's game was another excellent outing for Marcum. 3 IP, 1 hit, no walks, 39 pitches, and 30 were thrown for strikes. That's pretty impressive who hasn't pitched in the major leagues in about 18 months! Odds are now that Marcum becomes the opening day starter.

Jose Bautista continues to keep making things interesting. He currently has the second highest batting average on the team, the highest slugging percentage, and is kicking everyone else's butts in terms of total bases with 22 so far. With both Bautista and Ruiz swinging the stick as well as they are, and Travis Snider lacking a little bit in that department, going 3 for 16 so far at the plate, don't be so sure that Snider is the Blue Jays' starting right or left fielder. I don't want to make a full prediction of the Jays' starting lineup just yet, because it's still quite early, but right now, I have difficulty penciling in Snider in either corner outfield position.

The one new Jay that is quietly impressing is Mike McCoy. The shortstop is competing for playing time at a position where there is a bit of a void. The Jays' stop-gap at SS, Alex Gonzalez, has a career batting average that is less than 1% higher of that of John McDonald. Jonny Mac has always been criticized of being just miserable at the plate, but he's not much worse than Gonzalez who has never hit for average, and has posted only one 20+ HR season in his career back in 2004. McCoy only got his first taste of 'the show' just last year, and it was quite brief at that, getting just 6 plate appearances, but he has been kicking around the minor leagues for 8 seasons now. He earned his promotion to the big leagues after hitting .307/.405/.400 in AAA in 2009. He isn't going to hit for power, but he will steal some bases for you. (He stole 40 for Colorado Springs of the Pacific Coast League last year). And did I mention that he is leading the Jays' in batting average so far this spring going 6 for 9 at the plate?

As I said, McCoy has earned the top spot in terms of batting average on the club quietly given that he has only had 9 ABs - so don't get too excited. But I would expect McCoy to be making the trip north with the big club at the start of the season rather than heading out to Vegas. Don't expect the soon-to-be 29-year old to garner too much playing time, especially at the beginning of the season, but keep your eye on him - he could be fun to watch this season.


Rational and reasonable comments are always welcome.

Saturday, March 6, 2010

Bautista gives Gaston something to think about

Jose Bautista's role with the Jays this season is definitely in question. But Bautista is hoping to show that it’s not a question of if he will be in the starting lineup everyday, but where exactly he will be.

For much of the 2009 season, Bautista served as a utility player. For any player, coming in off the bench to pinch hit after sitting for over half the game is never an easy task. Not knowing where you’re going to be playing in the field each day when you come to the ballpark can also serve as a point of distraction. But oftentimes, when players are finally given the opportunity to have a consistent spot in the starting lineup, their offensive numbers can improve significantly. This is exactly what happened in September/October of 2009 when Bautista compiled 10 HR and 21 RBI while sporting a .606 SLG percentage, and an OPS of .918. Bautista has started off spring training on a similar note going 5 for 6 at the plate with 1 HR and 4 RBI in 2 games.

Over Bautista’s last 30 games of the 2009 season, he solidified himself as the Jays’ starting right-fielder, but it was only over the last 13 games of the season that Bautista also had the piece of mind of knowing that he was going to be penciled in every day in the leadoff position. Many argue that he is the Jays' de-facto leadoff hitter if speedsters, and more proto-typical leadoff hitters like Joey Gathright or Mike McCoy don't step up. So far, they haven’t given Cito Gaston much reason to entrust them with the responsibility of kick-starting the Blue Jays’ offense.

But do Bautista’s offensive numbers through September/October of last season, and his first 2 games of spring training make him the best fit for the leadoff position? Would he be better suited further down in the lineup? In 2009, Bautista had an above-average walk-rate of .139. However, while he went on his offensive tear during his last 30 games of the season, his walk-rate slowed to a rate of .088, and his OBP, which for the entire season was .349, dropped to a pedestrian .312 during this stretch. Throughout 2009, the only Blue Jay to draw a base-on-balls at a faster clip than Bautista was Lyle Overbay at .148. Earlier today, Mike Wilner suggested on the radio that Overbay may be another choice for the leadoff spot. I would tend to agree with Mr. Wilner with regards to that assessment. (To answer your question, Mr. Wilner, Overbay has never led off a game in the major leagues – so no surprise for you there!)

Early on in spring training many are projecting Bautista to be the leadoff hitter, and Overbay to be hitting fifth in the lineup. Maybe those two positions in the batting order end up getting swapped. It would be wrong to suggest that Bautista is secretly a pure power hitter, but when comparing Bautista and Overbay, it is interesting to note that they have identical 162 game averages for home runs – 17. It’s still very early in the spring, and there are still many questions to be answered before the Blue Jays’ opening day lineup is finalized. The flipside of a potentially sub-par season for the Jays is at the very least, an interesting competition in March for jobs on opening day. The Jays are only three games in, and we can only infer so much from such limited action, but Jose Bautista is certainly making a strong case for himself thus far.

The Jays Spank the Yanks!

A solid effort from the Blue Jays (big leaguers and minor leaguers alike) lead them to a commanding 9-1 victory over the New York Yankees in the first televised (online at least) Blue Jays game of the season.

For Blue Jays fans, the most encouraging sign is definitely that Shaun Marcum looked sharp pitching 2 innings, not allowing a single hit, and only allowing one walk to Alex Rodriguez on 4 pitches where Marcum was most likely being cautious about giving the future hall-of-famer anything to hit. If Marcum keeps this up throughout the spring, you can pencil him in as the ace of the staff. That's not a knock against Ricky Romero, but that would be a lot to put on the shoulders of a sophomore pitcher.

In terms of position players, Jose Bautista, Vernon Wells, and J.P Arencibia have also been impressive in the Blue Jays first few games of the spring. Both Wells & Arencibia are obviously trying to bounce back from disappointing offensive seasons. Wells' offensive numbers lagged in 2009 highlighted by just 15 HRs - his lowest season total since becoming the Jays' everyday centre-fielder in 2002. Wells has looked solid in the 2 games in which he has appeared going 4 for 6, making some solid contact with the ball. J.P. Arencibia has given Jays fans a glimpse of why there has been so much hype about him over the last couple of seasons, leading the Jays so far with 2 HR and 5 RBI. As for Jose Bautista, check back shortly for a detailed article about the Blue Jay whose role with Jays this season is highly-debated.

As for the Yankees, they will surely shake off this poor performance. The Jays hitters rocked Jonathan Albaladejo with 7 hits over 1/3 of an inning, thus ballooning the Yankee reliever's early spring ERA to a laughable 189! Former Blue Jay A.J. Burnett lasted 1/3 of an inning less than expected after surrendering 2 ERs on 5 hits. Burnett is hoping to add a changeup this season to his arsenal which currently consists of a devastating '12-to-6' curveball (which he did not throw today) and an overpowering fastball. If you're a Jays fan, don't get too excited just because your Blue Jays knocked around Burnett a little bit. If A.J. can actually incorporate a changeup into his suite of pitches, it will make his fastball that much more effective by leaving hitters guessing. If he can learn to locate his pitches a little bit more, and NOT lead the AL in walks as he did in 2009, Burnett will surely be one of the most feared pitchers in professional baseball.

The Jays host the Tigers Sunday at 1pm in Dunedin.

Thursday, March 4, 2010

The Inaugural Post

Hey Everyone,
This is my first post on the blog. This blog will cover everything pertaining to the Toronto Blue Jays and other MLB topics.

This blog will not simply be my personal thoughts on what's going on with the Blue Jays, nor will be it be a place for me to complain about what may potentially be the worst season for the Jays in a long time.

On this blog I hope to engage readers with thoughtful analysis about issues important to Blue Jays fans. The blog will consist of everything from a simple summary of the Jays' latest game, to more complex, highly-debated issues like what pitcher should get brought into the rotation when one of the starters goes down with an injury.

I find that there are many sports fans out there whose arguments are poorly formed, and not at all backed up with any kind of factual information, or even worse, backed up with completely false information. This doesn't allow for a healthy dialogue or argument to take place between fans about the issues at hand. Having said that, you can count on this blog for reliable and verifiable information, as well as educated, and I hope, thought-provoking analysis to the issues that interest you, the Toronto Blue Jays fan.

Reasonable and rational comments are more than welcome.


-Steve