It's been a while ...

I haven't posted anything in quite a while... I figured I was due...


Just some random thoughts...

I was thinking that when Aaron Hill got back in the lineup that would mean some difficult decisions about who to remove from the 25-man roster. With E5 (that's right I said it... E5) on the DL, the hard decision was averted. E5 will return though, and he's going to be in the lineup most likely leaves one of Ruiz, McDonald or McCoy as the odd man out. That'll be a shame.

It appears as though the Merkin Valdez era in Toronto has come to an end. He didn't really get much of a chance, but he didn't really do too much in his brief time in the spotlight. I feel for Jeremy Accardo. He's gotta be really frustrated. 30 saves in 2007 and now he's struggling to get playing times in the big leagues. That Jays don't have a lot of guys who can deliver some serious heat, but that is one of Josh Roenicke's strengths, so it'll be good to see him up here. Rommie Lewis... I'm going to be that will be short-lived. I'd like to see Jesse Carlson back up here, but he hasn't had the best results so far down in Vegas. Bad news is that he's allowed 12 hits in 8.2 innings. Good news is that he's only walked 1 batter over that period.

That's it for now.

Mike Wilner agrees with me!

So apparently the all-knowing Mike Wilner of the FAN 590 agrees with me. I make posts on Wilner's blog on the FAN website regularly, and posted my ideas about how to get Randy Ruiz into the lineup, and his response was: It’s not a bad idea, and it keeps Bautista from being a complete bench player. And Encarnacion can play first against lefties to keep him in the line-up everyday.. For Wilner to say, "it's not a bad idea", I interpret that as he thinks it's a good idea, or as good of an idea as any out there.

I like his addition he's made to my plan to put Encarnacion at 1st base against lefties. Offensively, it makes perfect sense. Lyle Overbay, being a left-handed batter, fares much worse against left-handed pitching than the right-handed batter, Edwin Encarnacion. Against left-handed pitching, over the course of their careers, the two players' numbers are as follows:
OVERBAY - .262/.307/.398
ENCARNACION - .270/.375/.464

Overbay's batting average isn't that much worse against lefties than it is against righties, but you see a much more significant decrease in production when it comes to his on-base percentage (walks) and slugging percentage (power). I'm just a touch skeptical about Wilner's suggestion to put Encarnacion at first base simply because of the fact that Encarnacion has started just a single game at first base in his major league career. However, the transition from 3rd base to 1st base is not a difficult one. That is actually the transition that Blue Jays' prospect Brett Wallace has recently gone through. With Encarnacion, in my opinion, it's his throwing arm that is of more concern than his glove, and at 1st base, there's much less need to have a solid throwing arm than at 3rd base. Let's just hope that he doesn't throw the ball into left field when he's trying to turn a 3-6-3 double play!

My Plan to get Randy Ruiz into the lineup

Eight games into the season, Randy Ruiz has just a single at bat. In a way that's quite shocking given that Ruiz actually led the Blue Jays in 2009 in terms of on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Other than the departed Scott Rolen, he also led the club in terms of batting average. I will concede, he accomplished this feat with limited playing time (115 ABs), but that's still a decent sample size. On the other hand, with Cito Gaston as the manager, someone who does not use a lot of pinch hitters, it's not that surprising that he only has 1 at bat thus far.

However, regardless of Cito's managerial philosophy when it comes to pinch hitting, I think I have a feasible solution to get Randy Ruiz some playing time. Having said that, there are certain caveats, or conditions that have to be met. Travis Snider has to be an everyday player, and has to face lefties. The youngster is going to be a key piece to this franchise in the near future, and the club has to show him that they have confidence in him, and he needs to develop his own confidence against lefties, and he needs as much playing time as possible to continue to improve defensively. If he stubs his toe this year - so be it. This the year to make mistakes. Lyle Overbay is going to be an everyday player as well. Plugging Ruiz in at 1st base is too much of a defensive liability. And it goes without saying, but Randy Ruiz cannot bump Adam Lind out of the lineup.

So, the only possible solution is to: put Bautista at 3rd base against left-handed pitching; sit Edwin Encarnacion; move Snider to right field; and give Adam Lind some time in left field. I'm not saying that the Jays should do this because I'm a big Bautista fan (which I am) or because of his sudden outburst of home runs in August/September of 2009, and during spring training. Nor am I saying this because I'm not Edwin Encarnacion fan (which I'm not) or really even because of his sub-standard defense. I'm basing this decision solely on each players' respective career numbers against left-handed pitching. There's no question that over their entire careers, Encarnacion is a superior hitter, but against left-handed pitching it is quite a different story.

Against left-handed pitching, Encarnacion has hit .270/.375/.464 and has an OPS of .839. Bautista has hit .265/.359/.478 against left-handed pitching, and has an OPS of .838. OPS is On-Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage. On-base percentage is more effective than measuring simple batting average because it takes into account walks and hit-by-pitches in addition to base hits. Slugging Percentage (total bases/at-bats) not only measures how often a player gets a base hit (batting average), but what kind of hits they are getting (singles, doubles, triples or home runs). Combining the two metrics gives a great measure of overall offensive production. A measly 1 point separates the two players when it comes to this stat. So in my books, against left-handed pitching, they're equal. One could argue that Bautista actually has a bit of an upside because of his new-found power from August/September 2009 and during Spring Training, but that argument does not need to be made in order to make this move convincing. The other reason to do this is because when you have Bautista at 3rd as opposed to Encarnacion, you're definitely giving your defense a boost.

So Bautista replaces Encarnacion against left-handed pitching, which is an offensive-neutral change, but an improvement defensively. And Randy Ruiz has the all the potential in the world to be a more productive hitter than Jose Bautista. The only reason not to make this move is if the Jays actually feel like Encarnacion could be their 3rd baseman of the future, or even in 2011. Encarnacion's contract with the Jays ends after the 2010 season.

On a completely separate note, Jason Frasor is no longer the Blue Jays closer. Kevin Greg, the newly-appointed closer, through 4 1/3 innings this season has allowed only 1 hit, has struck out 6, and hasn't allowed a single walk. He has faced the minimum 13 hitters. This move gets the thumbs up from me.

Upsetting Home Opener

Just a quick post tonight, but I figured I should put something up here given that it was the home opener. I did make the trip down and was WAY up in the 500s. I've included a picture so you can get the view from the cheap seats. I saw at least 3 fights break out in the 500s tonight.

The Jays continue to swing the bat very well with home runs from Vernon Wells (his 5th) and an absolutely TOWERING shot from John Buck which just about made it up into the 500 level.

Tallet got knocked around pretty well by the Sox, including former Blue Jay Alex Rios who went 3 for 5 on the night (all singles). I wasn't really sure what kind of reaction Rios would get from the fans, but it was not pretty at all. Downright nasty, actually. I guess it probably sounds that much worse when you have 46,000 fans booing you as opposed to only 20,000. Every time Rios came to bat or fielded the ball in the outfield the crowd erupted in rounds of boos, or 'RIOS YOU SUCK' or 'RIOS SUCKS'. I didn't hear anyone get all that creative with their Rios taunting. I thought it was a little too harsh. The only thing I hold against Rios is that he wasn't that much better about 3 years ago so that the trigger was pulled on the rumoured Rios-Lincecum deal. If that had happened, Halladay and Lincecum as the #1 and #2 starters in 2008, that would have almost definitely resulted in playoff baseball in Toronto for the first time since 1993. But I digress...

"Canadian" Mark Teahen hit a home run to left field in the 9th inning that gave Jason Frasor his second blown save of the season already. From my vantage point (500 level a few sections into foul territory on the 3rd baseline) I have no idea how that ball had enough to get out of the yard. Teahan struck again in the 11th inning with an RBI-triple that scored 42-year old Omar Vizquel. That handed Jeremy Accardo with the loss and a less-than-impressive season debut. I believe Merkin Valdez was warming in the bullpen in the 10th/11th inning, but he remains the only Blue Jay who has not got any action over the first week.

Blue Jays lead the AL East!

The Blue Jays are now in territory that was familiar to them at the beginning of the 2009 season, if only for a short period. Last year the Jays got used to seeing themselves at the top of the toughest division in baseball, the American League East, after starting the season 27-14 – a winning percentage of .659. Their 42nd game of the season marked the beginning of the end when the Jays went on a 9-game losing streak.

Chances are that the Jays’ time in the sun will not be as long-lived as it was last year. And hopefully… we won’t have to see our beloved Blue Jays endure another 9-game losing streak. (That wasn’t fun)

The Blue Jays are in first place currently because of a total team effort with some less-than-likely suspects, Travis Snider and Jose Molina, stepping up on Friday and Saturday respectively to put their team over the edge. Most fans would have considered Vernon Wells an unlikely suspect to carry the team on his shoulders, but that’s exactly what he did during the season-opening series against Texas hitting 4 home runs. The Jays have also had some of the best starting pitching in the American League so far, which leads me to my next point…

DANA EVELAND. He looked a little shaky in the first couple innings, but really settled in after that. Other than a 13-pitch at bat against Nick Markakis in 4th inning, Eveland worked very efficiently throwing just 94 pitches over 7 1/3 innings. Eveland relied heavily on his changeup, which served him well throughout the game. He is not overpowering, throwing a 4-seam, and 2-seam fastball between about 86-90mph, and also mixes a curveball into his repertoire. He pitches to contact, and as such, if I were Cito, I would have been a little more inclined to start defensive specialist John McDonald at second base on Saturday in order to solidify the defense behind Eveland who induced 12 ground ball outs against the Orioles. With power pitcher Brandon Morrow on the mound on Friday, there is less of a need for superior defense when he is striking out more than 1 batter per inning on average, so Mike McCoy could have started that game instead of McDonald with Aaron Hill still listed as day-to-day with hamstring tightness.

Offensively, Adam Lind, Edwin Encarnacion, Alex Gonzalez and Jose Molina stepped it up with two base hits each. Jose Molina really made his plate appearances count with 2 RBIs. His first came after he was plunked in the left shoulder by David Hernandez in the 4th inning with the bases loaded, and he drove in Edwin Encarnacion in the 6th inning with a base hit.

I’m officially starting my Randy Ruiz count. How many games before he gets an at bat? We’re at 5 games now.

The Jays have officially won their first two series of the season, but will go for the sweep tomorrow at 1:35pm at Camden Yards in Baltimore.

Give Ruiz a chance!

Hi All,
Brandon Morrow definitely made it an interesting game yesterday. I'm sure there were plenty of fans tuning in on the FAN or watching the game (and maybe even a handful who made the trip down to Camden Yards) who could only think during that first inning - "WE GAVE UP BRANDON LEAGUE FOR THIS!?". But fans often jump to conclusions way too quickly. His battery mate, John Buck, said afterwards that it was most likely just excitement and nerves that led to Morrow surrendering 3 earned runs in the first inning, but probably even worse, 4 walks, and one hit batsman. The new Jay settled in and ended up striking out 5 through 5 innings of work and kept his team in the game. He showed that by far, he is the hardest throwing pitcher in the Jays' starting rotation with a fastball that topped off yesterday at 97mph, whereas the rest of the current Jays' starters are lucky to hit 92-93mph on the radar gun. Look for a solid performance from Morrow next Wednesday against the White Sox where he faces a group of hitters to whom he has only given up 6 hits over 34 ABs.

The other story I feel is worth noting and giving a little analysis to is the Randy Ruiz Situation. I understand that we're only 4 games into the season, but I think it's unacceptable that Ruiz has not received a single at bat, and that Cito has only used one pinch hitter thus far - John Buck. With Ruiz' defensive deficiencies, and Cito's commitment to both Overbay and Snider to play them as everyday, non-platoon players, Cito admits, "At this point in time, we just just don't have any space for him." Snider, who is by all accounts supposed to be a key piece to the future of this franchise, needs to be shown that management has the confidence in him to face left-handed pitching, unlike the 2009 season where they handled him with kid gloves, giving him at bats almost exclusively against righties before his demotion to Triple-A Las Vegas in May.

Overbay is a completely different story. This is surely Overbay's last year in a Toronto uniform, given that this is his last year under contract with the team, and that they have Brett Wallace as the first baseman of the future down in Vegas currently. If I were a betting man, I would say Overbay is traded to another team before the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline. Cito, being the players' manager that he is, is likely to give Overbay plenty of time to shine and show his stuff in preparation to enter the free agent market at the end of the season. But given that this is a re-building/re-tooling year (however you want to refer to it - we all know what it is) the Blue Jays have no illusions of making the playoffs this year. They'll probably be more than happy if they manage to beat out Tampa for 3rd place in the AL East. So having said all that, GIVE THE 32-YEAR OLD, ALMOST-ROOKIE A REAL SHOT, AND SEE IF YOU'VE ACTUALLY GOT SOMETHING! This is the person who led the Blue Jays in 2009 (in limited action, yes, 115 ABs, but that's still a decent sample size) in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS. Also, in terms of all players who finished the season with the Blue Jays, he led the club in terms of batting average, hitting .313 on the year. (Scott Rolen hit .320). He has hit at every level in his long minor league career, and had arguably his best season ever hitting .320/.392/.584 with Triple-A Las Vegas and earning the Pacific Coast League's Most Valuable Player Award.

Randy Ruiz is definitely psyched to have been apart of a major league opening day roster for the first time ever earlier this week, but that high will certainly wear off shortly if he's not getting at bats, and he will be left wondering to himself, "What on earth do I have to do to prove that I am ready to be given a real shot in the major leagues?!" The Jays have nothing to lose with Ruiz, but very well may have found a diamond-in-the-rough. Now they've just gotta dig that diamond out, polish it off, and see how many karats it weighs... or... how many home runs it can hit!

2 games - 2 solid efforts

Overall, the Blue Jays fan has to be pleased with the effort put forth by the club in their first two games of the season. The performances of the two starting pitchers were absolutely stellar (Marcum) and solid (Tallet). On Monday, Marcum briefly flirted with history, almost joining Bob Feller as just the second pitcher in major league history to throw a no-hitter on opening day as he took the no-no into the 7th inning. Gritty as usual, Brian Tallet battled through 6 2/3 innings. He had to deal with some poor defence behind him, and a little hiccup in the 4th inning giving up back-to-back home runs, on back-to-back pitches to Vlad Guerrero and Nelson Cruz.

Offensively, Vernon Wells has (surprisingly) been the story for the Jays so far. The wrist must be feeling better for Wells because now he's making solid contact with the ball as opposed to getting under the ball, popping it up, and slamming his bat down in frustration - a sight that was all too familiar last year. Wells has gone 5 for 7 so far, with 3 home runs and 6 RBI - most definitely doing his job so far as the cleanup hitter. Given that Wells never blamed his wrist last year for his performance, it is doubtful now that he will attribute his performance to a healthy wrist. Wells will most likely never live up to his rich, back-loaded, 7-year, $126M contract, but if the wrist his 100% healthy, I would predict him having a season that the average Jays fan can be very pleased with.

If these two games were played with Vernon Wells circa 2009, the Jays probably lose these two games. Taking a cursory look over the box scores from the last 2 days, you may think that the Jays received some timely hitting with runners in scoring position given that today in particular, the Jays scored 7 runs with just 5 hits. But in fact, the Jays actually went 1 for 13 with RISP. But when you're hitting 5 HRs, 3 coming courtesy of your cleanup hitter, and when you make the opposing team pay when they make mistakes (walks), you put yourself in a very good position to win (as long as your closer doesn't blow a save).

Canadian pitcher, Rich Harden, looked dominant and out-of-place all at the same time on Wednesday night. It's not often that you see a pitcher rack up 8 strikeouts over just 3 2/3 innings. (5 of the first 6 outs for Harden were recorded by way of the K). The walks killed the Rangers' first two pitchers of the day - Harden & Dustin Nippert - who walked 9 collectively over 6 1/3 innings. Back-to-back bases loaded walks surrendered by Harden to Snider and Bautista in the 4th marked the end of the day for the Canuck.

So far, so good. Don't get too excited, don't write them off. Just sit back and enjoy some baseball

Reasonable and rational comments are always welcome.

Jays finalize pitching staff

No, it wasn't an April Fools joke, Brett Cecil is going to start the year in Triple-A Las Vegas. Cecil figured that he showed management enough during his start on Wednesday against the Phillies to warrant him breaking camp with the club, but apparently not. I find it a little peculiar that they made the final decision before Tallet's final start of the spring. If they were able to make that decision when they did, that tells me they basically had their minds made up even before Cecil's start on Wednesday. No matter how good Cecil pitched on Wednesday, he wasn't going to make the team.

Not that the order of the pitching rotation matters all that much in the grand scheme of things, but fans were under the impression that sophomore Ricky Romero was supposed to be the #2 starter, but in fact, it will be reliever-turned-starter Brian Tallet that will occupy that position and start next Wednesday against Texas. Tallet's position as the #2 starter also wins him the honour of starting for the Blue Jays in their home opener on April 12th vs. Chicago. Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow and Dana Eveland round out the starting rotation as the 3,4, and 5 pitchers.

Since both Tallet and and Eveland (possibilities for the bullpen) are currently in the starting rotation, that leaves only one lefty in the Jays' bullpen - Scott Downs, who last year, got used to the role as the Jays' closer for a period of time after the departure of BJ Ryan, but now may simply be used as situational lefty - quite a change from the closer's role. Obviously having only one left-handed pitcher in the bullpen is not a long term solution. To me that indicates that they believe Jesse Carlson will be returning soon. It also indicates that ideally they would like to have at least one of Tallet or Eveland in the bullpen - maybe both - when Marc Rzepczynski, and hopefully, Dustin McGowan return from their respective injuries.

Reasonable and rational comments are always welcome.