Why Matt Garza is no longer the Jay-killer that he once was

It's the return of the blog...

The Blue Jays began a crucial stretch of 9 games tonight where they will play the best team in baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays in 6 games, and the one team that is edging them out by 1 game for the AL Wildcard - the New York Yankees in 3 games.

Going into battle with the best team in baseball is never an easy task, and theoretically, made even less easy when the starting pitcher you are facing has historically had the Jays' number. Going into today's game, Matt Garza had made 11 starts against the Jays and had posted an ERA of of 2.19 and a WHIP (Walks & Hits per innings pitched for you non-stat geeks) of 1.20. The Blue Jays, going into today's game, had been hitting .232/.297/.308 against Garza - pitiful numbers. 2 HRs over 276 At Bats.

However, a closer look at the numbers suggests that Garza has had excellent numbers against the Blue Jays of 2008 & 2009, but against the current lineup - not so much. If one looks at the offensive numbers of all current Blue Jays players against Garza it's a different story, with those players hitting .275/.346/.394. Garza has dominated players like Marco Scutaro, Alex Rios, Joe Inglett, Rod Barajas, Kevin Millar & Matt Stairs in years past. Looking at the offensive of numbers of these departed Blue Jays, one finds they've had 123 ABs against Garza, sporting a batting average below the Mendoza line at .195, an OBP of .273, and an embarrasing slugging percentage of .228. Once you take those numbers out of the equation, it's no wonder that the Jays have handed Garza 2 losses in the two games in which they have faced him. In the 2 games this year that Garza has started against the Jays, he has pitched 11 1/3 innings, giving up 8 earned runs, 18 hits and 6 walks.

There were a lot of really good signs tonight from the Jays' point of view. Arguably the most important thing that we saw tonight was Brandon Morrow showing some control and only walking 2 over 7 innings of work - amazing! Thus far we have got used to Morrow putting up a ton of strikeouts - 10.42 K/9 innings - that puts him in a tie for first place with Giants' ace Tim Lincecum. Morrow only managed one strikeout tonight, but he did manage to take a no-hitter through 5 2/3 innings. In addition to Morrow's stellar performance, Fred Lewis (or FLewis for short) stroked 2 doubles and the slumping Aaron Hill went 3 for 4 tonight. If the Jays are at all hoping to make a run for a playoff spot, the Blue Jays' 2009 All-Star has to step it up.

The Rays send 2009 Rookie-of-the-Year candidate Jeff Niemann to the hill tomorrow, who has yet to lose a game, to face off against Brian Tallet, who has just been called up from Triple-A Las Vegas. Tallet has "handsome" 54 ERA after his one start last week where he only lasted an inning and a third.

First pitch goes a little bit after 7pm as usual.