Hey Folks,
A quick update for all you wondering how Dirk Hayhurst is doing.
In early February 2010, Hayhurst underwent shoulder surgery that was to keep him out for 4-6 months. The other week I realized that it had been 6 months, so I tracked Dirk down, and he informed me that he is doing well and will resume throwing off a mound shortly. He said that if the minor league season was just a little bit longer, than we may have seen him come back this year. We can expect to see him back in spring training next March.
In 2009 Hayhurst pitched in a middle/long-relief role, racking up 22 2/3 innings, while sporting a 2.78 ERA and allowing just over 1.4 baserunners per inning.
Had Hayhurst entered spring training in 2010, he would have had to deal with quite a bit of competition for one of 7 bullpen spots. Obviously a lot can change between now and next April, but if Hayhurst can come back in his 2009 form, he should have a better chance of making the team out of spring training. Both Scott Downs and Jason Frasor will be free agents. It would be difficult to see the Jays exercising their $4.5M option on Kevin Gregg. And Brian Tallet, who makes $2M this year, is a good candidate to be non-tendered in the offseason with his 5.65 ERA.
PS - If you haven't picked up a copy of The Bullpen Gospels, you really should do so.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Strasburg delivers stunning performance
It has been a long time since the debut of a player, in any sport, had been hyped as much as that of Stephen Strasburg's. It's so difficult to live up that kind of hype but Strasburg's performance probably exceeded the high expecations of most - at least in his first start.
Five of his first 8 pitches went for balls, and one wonders if there might have been some early jitters, but if he was a little nervous (but really, who wouldn't be a little nervous) he seemed to settle in fairly quickly, ultimately getting a 1-2-3 inning in his first inning of work, and finishing it off with his first major league strikeout.
This guy just has killer stuff! He was an absolute joy to watch. The fastball topped out at 100mph, and it's got great movement on it. I saw a 98mph fastaball that I thought was a slider for a second because of the movement that it had on it. His changeup hit 91mph on the radar gun. Shaun Marcum doesn't throw his fastball at that speed! He's almost throwing his changeup too hard. With the fastball coming at 96mph sometimes, throwing your changeup at 91mph isn't putting hitters out in front of the pitch as much as they should be in order to make the changeup effective. I love the curveball. Just deadly. Throwing the curveball at about 79/80mph when your fastball is hitting triple digits on the radar gun can really make hitters look stupid, and that's exactly what Strasburg did.
He struck out a total of 14 over 7 innings! 14Ks! He struck out every player in Pittsburgh's starting lineup at least once. He also didn't even walk a batter. The only real mistake that he made was one of his 90mph changeups that should have dove out of the strike zone, but didn't get quite low enough, and Delwyn Young hit the ball out to right-centre field.
Strasburg would have had himself an infield hit in his first big league AB, but he took a nice little jog down to first base, either because he felt like he was going to be thrown out easily by Ronny Cedeno or because he is being told not to go nuts on the basepaths in order to avoid injury.
If you're on the road in the US this summer, and you're in the nation's capital, go check out a Nationals game. It would be an absolute treat for any baseball fan to see Strasburg, and Nationals Park is gorgeous. From my experience last summer, very friendly ushers that make the fans of the visiting teams feel very comfortable. The one usher told us that he could grab us some nicer seats half way through the game if we wanted. I was fine with my seats right by the Jays bullpen. However, if you're going to see Strasburg pitch, there might not be many seats available - it was standing room only tonight.
Don't expect Strasburg to be quite as dominant in his next few starts as he faces offences stronger than that of Pittsburgh, and as major league hitters get used to his stuff.
Five of his first 8 pitches went for balls, and one wonders if there might have been some early jitters, but if he was a little nervous (but really, who wouldn't be a little nervous) he seemed to settle in fairly quickly, ultimately getting a 1-2-3 inning in his first inning of work, and finishing it off with his first major league strikeout.
This guy just has killer stuff! He was an absolute joy to watch. The fastball topped out at 100mph, and it's got great movement on it. I saw a 98mph fastaball that I thought was a slider for a second because of the movement that it had on it. His changeup hit 91mph on the radar gun. Shaun Marcum doesn't throw his fastball at that speed! He's almost throwing his changeup too hard. With the fastball coming at 96mph sometimes, throwing your changeup at 91mph isn't putting hitters out in front of the pitch as much as they should be in order to make the changeup effective. I love the curveball. Just deadly. Throwing the curveball at about 79/80mph when your fastball is hitting triple digits on the radar gun can really make hitters look stupid, and that's exactly what Strasburg did.
He struck out a total of 14 over 7 innings! 14Ks! He struck out every player in Pittsburgh's starting lineup at least once. He also didn't even walk a batter. The only real mistake that he made was one of his 90mph changeups that should have dove out of the strike zone, but didn't get quite low enough, and Delwyn Young hit the ball out to right-centre field.
Strasburg would have had himself an infield hit in his first big league AB, but he took a nice little jog down to first base, either because he felt like he was going to be thrown out easily by Ronny Cedeno or because he is being told not to go nuts on the basepaths in order to avoid injury.
If you're on the road in the US this summer, and you're in the nation's capital, go check out a Nationals game. It would be an absolute treat for any baseball fan to see Strasburg, and Nationals Park is gorgeous. From my experience last summer, very friendly ushers that make the fans of the visiting teams feel very comfortable. The one usher told us that he could grab us some nicer seats half way through the game if we wanted. I was fine with my seats right by the Jays bullpen. However, if you're going to see Strasburg pitch, there might not be many seats available - it was standing room only tonight.
Don't expect Strasburg to be quite as dominant in his next few starts as he faces offences stronger than that of Pittsburgh, and as major league hitters get used to his stuff.
Monday, May 31, 2010
Why Matt Garza is no longer the Jay-killer that he once was
It's the return of the blog...
The Blue Jays began a crucial stretch of 9 games tonight where they will play the best team in baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays in 6 games, and the one team that is edging them out by 1 game for the AL Wildcard - the New York Yankees in 3 games.
Going into battle with the best team in baseball is never an easy task, and theoretically, made even less easy when the starting pitcher you are facing has historically had the Jays' number. Going into today's game, Matt Garza had made 11 starts against the Jays and had posted an ERA of of 2.19 and a WHIP (Walks & Hits per innings pitched for you non-stat geeks) of 1.20. The Blue Jays, going into today's game, had been hitting .232/.297/.308 against Garza - pitiful numbers. 2 HRs over 276 At Bats.
However, a closer look at the numbers suggests that Garza has had excellent numbers against the Blue Jays of 2008 & 2009, but against the current lineup - not so much. If one looks at the offensive numbers of all current Blue Jays players against Garza it's a different story, with those players hitting .275/.346/.394. Garza has dominated players like Marco Scutaro, Alex Rios, Joe Inglett, Rod Barajas, Kevin Millar & Matt Stairs in years past. Looking at the offensive of numbers of these departed Blue Jays, one finds they've had 123 ABs against Garza, sporting a batting average below the Mendoza line at .195, an OBP of .273, and an embarrasing slugging percentage of .228. Once you take those numbers out of the equation, it's no wonder that the Jays have handed Garza 2 losses in the two games in which they have faced him. In the 2 games this year that Garza has started against the Jays, he has pitched 11 1/3 innings, giving up 8 earned runs, 18 hits and 6 walks.
There were a lot of really good signs tonight from the Jays' point of view. Arguably the most important thing that we saw tonight was Brandon Morrow showing some control and only walking 2 over 7 innings of work - amazing! Thus far we have got used to Morrow putting up a ton of strikeouts - 10.42 K/9 innings - that puts him in a tie for first place with Giants' ace Tim Lincecum. Morrow only managed one strikeout tonight, but he did manage to take a no-hitter through 5 2/3 innings. In addition to Morrow's stellar performance, Fred Lewis (or FLewis for short) stroked 2 doubles and the slumping Aaron Hill went 3 for 4 tonight. If the Jays are at all hoping to make a run for a playoff spot, the Blue Jays' 2009 All-Star has to step it up.
The Rays send 2009 Rookie-of-the-Year candidate Jeff Niemann to the hill tomorrow, who has yet to lose a game, to face off against Brian Tallet, who has just been called up from Triple-A Las Vegas. Tallet has "handsome" 54 ERA after his one start last week where he only lasted an inning and a third.
First pitch goes a little bit after 7pm as usual.
The Blue Jays began a crucial stretch of 9 games tonight where they will play the best team in baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays in 6 games, and the one team that is edging them out by 1 game for the AL Wildcard - the New York Yankees in 3 games.
Going into battle with the best team in baseball is never an easy task, and theoretically, made even less easy when the starting pitcher you are facing has historically had the Jays' number. Going into today's game, Matt Garza had made 11 starts against the Jays and had posted an ERA of of 2.19 and a WHIP (Walks & Hits per innings pitched for you non-stat geeks) of 1.20. The Blue Jays, going into today's game, had been hitting .232/.297/.308 against Garza - pitiful numbers. 2 HRs over 276 At Bats.
However, a closer look at the numbers suggests that Garza has had excellent numbers against the Blue Jays of 2008 & 2009, but against the current lineup - not so much. If one looks at the offensive numbers of all current Blue Jays players against Garza it's a different story, with those players hitting .275/.346/.394. Garza has dominated players like Marco Scutaro, Alex Rios, Joe Inglett, Rod Barajas, Kevin Millar & Matt Stairs in years past. Looking at the offensive of numbers of these departed Blue Jays, one finds they've had 123 ABs against Garza, sporting a batting average below the Mendoza line at .195, an OBP of .273, and an embarrasing slugging percentage of .228. Once you take those numbers out of the equation, it's no wonder that the Jays have handed Garza 2 losses in the two games in which they have faced him. In the 2 games this year that Garza has started against the Jays, he has pitched 11 1/3 innings, giving up 8 earned runs, 18 hits and 6 walks.
There were a lot of really good signs tonight from the Jays' point of view. Arguably the most important thing that we saw tonight was Brandon Morrow showing some control and only walking 2 over 7 innings of work - amazing! Thus far we have got used to Morrow putting up a ton of strikeouts - 10.42 K/9 innings - that puts him in a tie for first place with Giants' ace Tim Lincecum. Morrow only managed one strikeout tonight, but he did manage to take a no-hitter through 5 2/3 innings. In addition to Morrow's stellar performance, Fred Lewis (or FLewis for short) stroked 2 doubles and the slumping Aaron Hill went 3 for 4 tonight. If the Jays are at all hoping to make a run for a playoff spot, the Blue Jays' 2009 All-Star has to step it up.
The Rays send 2009 Rookie-of-the-Year candidate Jeff Niemann to the hill tomorrow, who has yet to lose a game, to face off against Brian Tallet, who has just been called up from Triple-A Las Vegas. Tallet has "handsome" 54 ERA after his one start last week where he only lasted an inning and a third.
First pitch goes a little bit after 7pm as usual.
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
It's been a while ...
I haven't posted anything in quite a while... I figured I was due...
Just some random thoughts...
I was thinking that when Aaron Hill got back in the lineup that would mean some difficult decisions about who to remove from the 25-man roster. With E5 (that's right I said it... E5) on the DL, the hard decision was averted. E5 will return though, and he's going to be in the lineup most likely leaves one of Ruiz, McDonald or McCoy as the odd man out. That'll be a shame.
It appears as though the Merkin Valdez era in Toronto has come to an end. He didn't really get much of a chance, but he didn't really do too much in his brief time in the spotlight. I feel for Jeremy Accardo. He's gotta be really frustrated. 30 saves in 2007 and now he's struggling to get playing times in the big leagues. That Jays don't have a lot of guys who can deliver some serious heat, but that is one of Josh Roenicke's strengths, so it'll be good to see him up here. Rommie Lewis... I'm going to be that will be short-lived. I'd like to see Jesse Carlson back up here, but he hasn't had the best results so far down in Vegas. Bad news is that he's allowed 12 hits in 8.2 innings. Good news is that he's only walked 1 batter over that period.
That's it for now.
Just some random thoughts...
I was thinking that when Aaron Hill got back in the lineup that would mean some difficult decisions about who to remove from the 25-man roster. With E5 (that's right I said it... E5) on the DL, the hard decision was averted. E5 will return though, and he's going to be in the lineup most likely leaves one of Ruiz, McDonald or McCoy as the odd man out. That'll be a shame.
It appears as though the Merkin Valdez era in Toronto has come to an end. He didn't really get much of a chance, but he didn't really do too much in his brief time in the spotlight. I feel for Jeremy Accardo. He's gotta be really frustrated. 30 saves in 2007 and now he's struggling to get playing times in the big leagues. That Jays don't have a lot of guys who can deliver some serious heat, but that is one of Josh Roenicke's strengths, so it'll be good to see him up here. Rommie Lewis... I'm going to be that will be short-lived. I'd like to see Jesse Carlson back up here, but he hasn't had the best results so far down in Vegas. Bad news is that he's allowed 12 hits in 8.2 innings. Good news is that he's only walked 1 batter over that period.
That's it for now.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Mike Wilner agrees with me!
So apparently the all-knowing Mike Wilner of the FAN 590 agrees with me. I make posts on Wilner's blog on the FAN website regularly, and posted my ideas about how to get Randy Ruiz into the lineup, and his response was: It’s not a bad idea, and it keeps Bautista from being a complete bench player. And Encarnacion can play first against lefties to keep him in the line-up everyday.. For Wilner to say, "it's not a bad idea", I interpret that as he thinks it's a good idea, or as good of an idea as any out there.
I like his addition he's made to my plan to put Encarnacion at 1st base against lefties. Offensively, it makes perfect sense. Lyle Overbay, being a left-handed batter, fares much worse against left-handed pitching than the right-handed batter, Edwin Encarnacion. Against left-handed pitching, over the course of their careers, the two players' numbers are as follows:
OVERBAY - .262/.307/.398
ENCARNACION - .270/.375/.464
Overbay's batting average isn't that much worse against lefties than it is against righties, but you see a much more significant decrease in production when it comes to his on-base percentage (walks) and slugging percentage (power). I'm just a touch skeptical about Wilner's suggestion to put Encarnacion at first base simply because of the fact that Encarnacion has started just a single game at first base in his major league career. However, the transition from 3rd base to 1st base is not a difficult one. That is actually the transition that Blue Jays' prospect Brett Wallace has recently gone through. With Encarnacion, in my opinion, it's his throwing arm that is of more concern than his glove, and at 1st base, there's much less need to have a solid throwing arm than at 3rd base. Let's just hope that he doesn't throw the ball into left field when he's trying to turn a 3-6-3 double play!
I like his addition he's made to my plan to put Encarnacion at 1st base against lefties. Offensively, it makes perfect sense. Lyle Overbay, being a left-handed batter, fares much worse against left-handed pitching than the right-handed batter, Edwin Encarnacion. Against left-handed pitching, over the course of their careers, the two players' numbers are as follows:
OVERBAY - .262/.307/.398
ENCARNACION - .270/.375/.464
Overbay's batting average isn't that much worse against lefties than it is against righties, but you see a much more significant decrease in production when it comes to his on-base percentage (walks) and slugging percentage (power). I'm just a touch skeptical about Wilner's suggestion to put Encarnacion at first base simply because of the fact that Encarnacion has started just a single game at first base in his major league career. However, the transition from 3rd base to 1st base is not a difficult one. That is actually the transition that Blue Jays' prospect Brett Wallace has recently gone through. With Encarnacion, in my opinion, it's his throwing arm that is of more concern than his glove, and at 1st base, there's much less need to have a solid throwing arm than at 3rd base. Let's just hope that he doesn't throw the ball into left field when he's trying to turn a 3-6-3 double play!
My Plan to get Randy Ruiz into the lineup
Eight games into the season, Randy Ruiz has just a single at bat. In a way that's quite shocking given that Ruiz actually led the Blue Jays in 2009 in terms of on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Other than the departed Scott Rolen, he also led the club in terms of batting average. I will concede, he accomplished this feat with limited playing time (115 ABs), but that's still a decent sample size. On the other hand, with Cito Gaston as the manager, someone who does not use a lot of pinch hitters, it's not that surprising that he only has 1 at bat thus far.
However, regardless of Cito's managerial philosophy when it comes to pinch hitting, I think I have a feasible solution to get Randy Ruiz some playing time. Having said that, there are certain caveats, or conditions that have to be met. Travis Snider has to be an everyday player, and has to face lefties. The youngster is going to be a key piece to this franchise in the near future, and the club has to show him that they have confidence in him, and he needs to develop his own confidence against lefties, and he needs as much playing time as possible to continue to improve defensively. If he stubs his toe this year - so be it. This the year to make mistakes. Lyle Overbay is going to be an everyday player as well. Plugging Ruiz in at 1st base is too much of a defensive liability. And it goes without saying, but Randy Ruiz cannot bump Adam Lind out of the lineup.
So, the only possible solution is to: put Bautista at 3rd base against left-handed pitching; sit Edwin Encarnacion; move Snider to right field; and give Adam Lind some time in left field. I'm not saying that the Jays should do this because I'm a big Bautista fan (which I am) or because of his sudden outburst of home runs in August/September of 2009, and during spring training. Nor am I saying this because I'm not Edwin Encarnacion fan (which I'm not) or really even because of his sub-standard defense. I'm basing this decision solely on each players' respective career numbers against left-handed pitching. There's no question that over their entire careers, Encarnacion is a superior hitter, but against left-handed pitching it is quite a different story.
Against left-handed pitching, Encarnacion has hit .270/.375/.464 and has an OPS of .839. Bautista has hit .265/.359/.478 against left-handed pitching, and has an OPS of .838. OPS is On-Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage. On-base percentage is more effective than measuring simple batting average because it takes into account walks and hit-by-pitches in addition to base hits. Slugging Percentage (total bases/at-bats) not only measures how often a player gets a base hit (batting average), but what kind of hits they are getting (singles, doubles, triples or home runs). Combining the two metrics gives a great measure of overall offensive production. A measly 1 point separates the two players when it comes to this stat. So in my books, against left-handed pitching, they're equal. One could argue that Bautista actually has a bit of an upside because of his new-found power from August/September 2009 and during Spring Training, but that argument does not need to be made in order to make this move convincing. The other reason to do this is because when you have Bautista at 3rd as opposed to Encarnacion, you're definitely giving your defense a boost.
So Bautista replaces Encarnacion against left-handed pitching, which is an offensive-neutral change, but an improvement defensively. And Randy Ruiz has the all the potential in the world to be a more productive hitter than Jose Bautista. The only reason not to make this move is if the Jays actually feel like Encarnacion could be their 3rd baseman of the future, or even in 2011. Encarnacion's contract with the Jays ends after the 2010 season.
On a completely separate note, Jason Frasor is no longer the Blue Jays closer. Kevin Greg, the newly-appointed closer, through 4 1/3 innings this season has allowed only 1 hit, has struck out 6, and hasn't allowed a single walk. He has faced the minimum 13 hitters. This move gets the thumbs up from me.
However, regardless of Cito's managerial philosophy when it comes to pinch hitting, I think I have a feasible solution to get Randy Ruiz some playing time. Having said that, there are certain caveats, or conditions that have to be met. Travis Snider has to be an everyday player, and has to face lefties. The youngster is going to be a key piece to this franchise in the near future, and the club has to show him that they have confidence in him, and he needs to develop his own confidence against lefties, and he needs as much playing time as possible to continue to improve defensively. If he stubs his toe this year - so be it. This the year to make mistakes. Lyle Overbay is going to be an everyday player as well. Plugging Ruiz in at 1st base is too much of a defensive liability. And it goes without saying, but Randy Ruiz cannot bump Adam Lind out of the lineup.
So, the only possible solution is to: put Bautista at 3rd base against left-handed pitching; sit Edwin Encarnacion; move Snider to right field; and give Adam Lind some time in left field. I'm not saying that the Jays should do this because I'm a big Bautista fan (which I am) or because of his sudden outburst of home runs in August/September of 2009, and during spring training. Nor am I saying this because I'm not Edwin Encarnacion fan (which I'm not) or really even because of his sub-standard defense. I'm basing this decision solely on each players' respective career numbers against left-handed pitching. There's no question that over their entire careers, Encarnacion is a superior hitter, but against left-handed pitching it is quite a different story.
Against left-handed pitching, Encarnacion has hit .270/.375/.464 and has an OPS of .839. Bautista has hit .265/.359/.478 against left-handed pitching, and has an OPS of .838. OPS is On-Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage. On-base percentage is more effective than measuring simple batting average because it takes into account walks and hit-by-pitches in addition to base hits. Slugging Percentage (total bases/at-bats) not only measures how often a player gets a base hit (batting average), but what kind of hits they are getting (singles, doubles, triples or home runs). Combining the two metrics gives a great measure of overall offensive production. A measly 1 point separates the two players when it comes to this stat. So in my books, against left-handed pitching, they're equal. One could argue that Bautista actually has a bit of an upside because of his new-found power from August/September 2009 and during Spring Training, but that argument does not need to be made in order to make this move convincing. The other reason to do this is because when you have Bautista at 3rd as opposed to Encarnacion, you're definitely giving your defense a boost.
So Bautista replaces Encarnacion against left-handed pitching, which is an offensive-neutral change, but an improvement defensively. And Randy Ruiz has the all the potential in the world to be a more productive hitter than Jose Bautista. The only reason not to make this move is if the Jays actually feel like Encarnacion could be their 3rd baseman of the future, or even in 2011. Encarnacion's contract with the Jays ends after the 2010 season.
On a completely separate note, Jason Frasor is no longer the Blue Jays closer. Kevin Greg, the newly-appointed closer, through 4 1/3 innings this season has allowed only 1 hit, has struck out 6, and hasn't allowed a single walk. He has faced the minimum 13 hitters. This move gets the thumbs up from me.
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Upsetting Home Opener
Just a quick post tonight, but I figured I should put something up here given that it was the home opener. I did make the trip down and was WAY up in the 500s. I've included a picture so you can get the view from the cheap seats. I saw at least 3 fights break out in the 500s tonight.
The Jays continue to swing the bat very well with home runs from Vernon Wells (his 5th) and an absolutely TOWERING shot from John Buck which just about made it up into the 500 level.
Tallet got knocked around pretty well by the Sox, including former Blue Jay Alex Rios who went 3 for 5 on the night (all singles). I wasn't really sure what kind of reaction Rios would get from the fans, but it was not pretty at all. Downright nasty, actually. I guess it probably sounds that much worse when you have 46,000 fans booing you as opposed to only 20,000. Every time Rios came to bat or fielded the ball in the outfield the crowd erupted in rounds of boos, or 'RIOS YOU SUCK' or 'RIOS SUCKS'. I didn't hear anyone get all that creative with their Rios taunting. I thought it was a little too harsh. The only thing I hold against Rios is that he wasn't that much better about 3 years ago so that the trigger was pulled on the rumoured Rios-Lincecum deal. If that had happened, Halladay and Lincecum as the #1 and #2 starters in 2008, that would have almost definitely resulted in playoff baseball in Toronto for the first time since 1993. But I digress...
"Canadian" Mark Teahen hit a home run to left field in the 9th inning that gave Jason Frasor his second blown save of the season already. From my vantage point (500 level a few sections into foul territory on the 3rd baseline) I have no idea how that ball had enough to get out of the yard. Teahan struck again in the 11th inning with an RBI-triple that scored 42-year old Omar Vizquel. That handed Jeremy Accardo with the loss and a less-than-impressive season debut. I believe Merkin Valdez was warming in the bullpen in the 10th/11th inning, but he remains the only Blue Jay who has not got any action over the first week.
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